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| We had to get some compensation for Gagne's disaster, right? |
So, which direction will the Red Sox choose to go on Draft Day? Well, to answer that question, it would help to understand the strengths and weaknesses throughout the farm system. I'm not going to pretend to have a Mike Hazen-esque knowledge of the Red Sox minor league system, but I do follow the top 15-20 prospects with regularity. Browsing through some the Sox prospects, it's evident where the dearth is. The Sox have a surplus of pitching with Justin Masterson, Michale Bowden, Daniel Bard, Nick Hagadone, Bryce Cox, David Pauley, and even Lester and Buchholz. The Sox are also loaded up the middle with infielders such as Jed Lowrie and teenagers Oscar Tejeda, Will Middlebrooks, and last year's second pick, Ryan Dent. The Sox can even boast some outfield depth with Brandon Moss, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, and Jason Place.
Through all of this talent, though, are two glaring weaknesses: power hitting and catcher. The Sox have what appears to be a future star in 1B, Lars Anderson. They've also got Chris Carter and Bubba Bell who can hit for power. With the possible exception of Anderson, the Sox lack that prototypical Ortiz-type power hitter in the minor league system. And the team's depth as far as power goes can't even be considered mediocre. Outside of free agency, it does not seem that the Red Sox have any long-term plans to replace the big bats of Manny and Ortiz when they choose to depart. In regards to the catcher's position, the Sox have bodies, but nobody wants to step up to become the next Jason Varitek. Mark Wagner seems to have the best shot; he's gifted defensively and does possess some offensive skills. George Kottaras was originally thought to be the catcher of the future, but he has not panned out thus far. Plus, he is already 25. Dusty Brown has a solid defensive skill set, but will never hit enough to be a starter.
My guess is that the Sox will look to acquire some catching and power hitting depth through this year's draft. Fortunately for the Sox, this draft class is fairly deep in both categories. That said, Theo and his posse have taken on a Patriots-esque mentality when it comes to the draft, seemingly taking the best available player. The direction that the Sox decide to take on Draft Day remains to be seen. With that in mind, though, here are the scouting reports of a dozen players that I have seen linked to the Sox while browsing mock drafts.
David Cooper, 1B, California - He's a left-handed hitting first baseman who can hit for power to all fields. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo describes Cooper as having plus power with very average defensive skills. He was recently named a Louisville Slugger third-team All-American.
Lance Lynn, P, Ole Miss - Lynn is big righty in the mold of a Joba Chamberlain when it comes to body type. He does not throw as hard as Joba, topping out in the low 90's with his heater. He mixes average stuff with outstanding command. With Ole Miss on the season, he's currently got 103 strikeouts in 83.1 innings.
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| These scouting reports are brought to you by Mayo! |
Andrew Cashner, P, TCU - Cashner is a closer who has been consistently touching 98 mph with his fastball. He mixes in an improving slider, but there are concerns about his walk rate (4.5 BB/9). Like Cooper, he has been named a Louisville Slugger third-team All-American with a 1.80 ERA, 9 saves, .120 BAA, and 74 K's in 50 innings pitched.
Kyle Lobstein, P, Coconino High School, Arizona - A tall, lean lefty out of high school, Lobstein, according to Jonathan Mayo, has a chance to be a Chuck Finley type. He's currently sitting in the 88-90 mph range with his fastball, but does have the potential to throw three above average pitches at the Major League level.
Ryan Perry, P, Arizona - This guy intrigues me. He sits in the mid-to-high 90's with good sink on his fastball. He's got a plus changeup and a slider which can be a plus pitch at times. I was not able to dig up his ground ball to fly ball ratio (he did give up six homers in 67.1 IP), but his scouting report hints at Perry being a groundball pitcher who some see as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State - This is the guy I want the Sox to get, but I believe that he will be gone well before they pick at #30. He's been described as one of the best pure hitters in college with unbelievable plate discipline, power to all fields, and even the ability to steal a base. He was named Pac-10 Player of the Year for the second consecutive season while hitting .412 with 20 homers and an OPS approaching 1.300.
Matt Marquis, CF, Immaculata High School, New Jersey - A very talented outfielder from a defensive standpoint, Marquis has a projectable body type with very good bat speed and power. The Boston Globe has recently reported that Theo has personally scouted Marquis at his high school in Somerville, New Jersey.
Ricky Oropesa, 3B, Etiwanda High School, California - A left-handed hitting third baseman, Oropesa is just finishing up his high school years. He's been described as having plus-plus raw power with adequate fielding skills at the hot corner. I could see the Sox going this direction; it would address their power dearth, and third base isn't necessarily a position of strength throughout the system.
Anthony DeSclafani, P, Colts Neck High School, New Jersey - A five-star prospect who can command a three-pitch repetoire. He pounds the bottom of the zone very effectively, and tops out around 90 mph. There is risk in drafting DeSclafani as he's committed to Florida.
Trey Haley, P, Central Heights High School, Texas - Haley is similar in build to fellow Texas native, Clay Buchholz. He combines mid 90's heat with a plus changeup, good command, intelligence, and above average makeup. He seems to have unlimited upside, but there is risk in drafting Haley as he has committed to Rice.
Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage High School, Florida - Something tells me that the Sox will take Nieto at #30. He's a solid all-around catcher who has the potential to be a 15 home run guy. He combines a steady approach at the plate with a plus arm behind it. The knock on Nieto has been his lack of athleticism behind the plate. At only 18 years of age, he is still raw.
When the two-day stretch from June 5-6 wraps up, we'll see if one or more of these guys is a future Red Sox. Perhaps one of these guys will be the next rookie du jour in the Jacoby Ellsbury or Justin Masterson mold. Whoever the Sox take at #30, though, I can rest assure you that Red Sox Nation will seek to know more about the kid than we'd ever imagine.
(On a side note, I will be heading to the College World Series from June 15 to June 18. If the Sox draft any of the players I will see in action, you will get a first account scouting report from yours truly. I am personally excited about that possibility.)
Sources: Baseball America, Sons of Sam Horn, MLB.com, Jonathan Mayo
2 comments:
Nice breakdown. The interesting thing to watch is how many big-talent players drop because of their bonus demands. There's always a couple that fall into the laps of the big-money teams.
And you're right about the risk of drafting a kid who may go to college. Daniel Bard was drafted by the Yankees in 2003 but he went to UNC instead. Three years later he's picked by the Sox.
Dave,
That's a good observation. And that's also one of the biggest knocks on the draft format. Because of how the slotting system is organized and enforced, low-to-mid-budget teams often pass on players represented by Boras or on any other player looking for exorbitant bonuses simply because that team cannot afford such a high-risk investment. This plays into the hands of teams like the Sox, Yanks, and Tigers, who gave Rick Porcello a $10MM bonus last year.
That said, it's unlikely anybody like Porcello falls to the Sox this year simply because they pick after the Yankees. I do hope that Brett Wallace does fall that far, though.
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