Rock, Chalk, Pats Mock

'Tis the season for mock drafts, big boards, more mock drafts, Mel Kiper, and even more mock drafts. Tomorrow, Jake Long is a lock for the top spot to the Dolphins. To be honest, I don't care about him or the 'Phins. My concern, of course, is the New England Patriots pick at #7. Most mock drafts I've seen have the Patriots taking USC defensive tackle, Sedrick Ellis. Some seem to think the Patriots will grab his teammate, linebacker Keith Rivers. I've even seen a select few mocks that think that Darren McFadden will fall to the Patriots. None of this will happen, though, when the Patriots make their selection at approximately 3:50pm.

How do I know? Well, as a wise and probably rich man once said, "You don't know where you're going unless you know where you've been." I have no clue which wise, rich man once said this, but it applies to the Patriots draft weekend.

So, in order to tell where the Pats are going tomorrow, let's look at where they've been. Here's some history on past Patriots drafts.

According to NFL.com, the Patriots first ever selection was Billy Brewer, a defensive back out of Missippi, way back in 1960. This pick was made when the Patriots still went by the Boston Patriots. Since Brewer, the Patriots have made 551 additional picks culminating in last year's second 7th rounder, Mike Elgin, a guard out of Iowa.

The last time the Patriots held the 7th pick was back in 1996 when the Pats selected Terry Glenn. That draft turned out to be one of the franchise's best in recent memory, producing players like Glenn, Tedy Bruschi, and Lawyer Milloy. That was the only other time in franchise history that the Pats held the 7th overall pick.

Speaking of the Patriots best drafts, my vote goes to the 1993 draft class which produced franchise savior Drew Bledsoe as well as Chris Slade, Vincent Brisby, and, in the 8th round, Troy Brown. The '95 class was also very, very good. The Pats took Ty Law, Ted Johnson, and Curtis Martin with their first three picks that year. Another strong draft class was the 2003 group of Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel (4th), Dan Koppen (5th), and Tully Banta-Cain (7th).

Some of the most memorable #1's taken by the Patriots over the years include Jim Plunkett (1971), John Hannah (1973), Tony Eason (1983), Irving Fryar (1984), Bruce Armstrong (1987), John Stephens (1988), Robert Edwards (1998), Damien Woody (1999), Richard Seymour (2001), and Laurence Maroney (2006). From 1993-96, the Patriots drafted Drew Bledsoe, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, and Terry Glenn with their top picks. A fairly productive stretch, I'd say.

On the other hand, here are some late-round flyers that have helped make some front office gentlemen look pretty smart: Steve Grogan (5th round, 1975), Rich Gannon (4th, 1987), Ben Coates (5th, 1991), Sam Gash (8th, 1992), Troy Brown (8th, 1993), Patrick Pass (7th, 2000), David Givens (7th, 2002), and Asante Samuel (4th, 2003). The Patriots also picked up some guy named Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 draft.

As for the Patriots outlook for tomorrow's NFL Draft, I previously mentioned that I don't see the Patriots taking either Ellis, Rivers, or McFadden. Since Belichick took over in 2000, the Patriots have drafted three positions heavily within the first three rounds: offensive line, defensive line, and secondary. With that, Sedrick Ellis is a possibility.

The Patriots will not choose Darren McFadden. My mock draft has McFadden available at #7, but I think the Patriots will pass despite the fact that he will clearly be the best player on the board. I think the Pats will shift to a running-back-by-committee, but McFadden and Maroney in the same backfield would be a waste of talent. It would make more sense for New England to go after a veteran bruiser-type back like Shaun Alexander.

Don't expect Belichick to make the Katzenmoyer mistake.

You can count Keith Rivers as a virtual lock not to get drafted by New England. Under Belichick, the Patriots have drafted only six linebackers, none higher than #170 overall when they chose Ryan Claridge out of UNLV in the 5th round of the 2005 draft. In fact, the last time the Patriots chose a linebacker higher than Claridge was in 1999 when they chose Andy Katzenmoyer 28th overall. Before him, Tedy Bruschi in 1996 was the last linebacker selected before round 5.

That leaves Ellis. He is a real possibility at #7. But I see the Patriots passing for two reasons. First, I'm just not sure there's enough playing time to go around on the D-line with Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, and Wright already engaged in a five-man rotation.

The second reason the Pats will pass on Ellis includes my prediction as to what the Patriots will do when they're on the clock tomorrow. I am guaranteeing with 99% certainty that New England will trade down from the seven spot. They will do this for three reasons.

Before I explain those reasons, let me quickly present my projected top six picks: Jake Long (Miami), Glenn Dorsey (St. Louis), Matt Ryan (Atlanta), Chris Long (Oakland), Ryan Clady (Kansas City), and Vernon Gholston (New York Jets).

Okay, so back to why the Pats will trade down.

#1) With McFadden still on the board, some team in desperate need of a running back (Detroit, Houston, Tennessee, Seattle) will blow the Patriots away with an offer. With their biggest need in the defensive backfield, I don't think the Patriots will find a whole lot of value in top 10 anyway, and they will accept without hesitation.

#2) My gut feeling is that Belichick and Pioli are still a bit PO'ed with Commissioner Goodell for forfeiting the Patriots first round pick as a result of Spygate. So, I think they'll move to stockpile as many first day picks as they can.

#3) This last reason will perhaps be the biggest influence in the Patriots decision to move down. As we know, top 10 guys typically receive a substantial amount of money by way of guarantees and bonuses. Well, according to a recent Mike Reiss Mailbag, the 7th overall pick is expected to command somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 million guaranteed. This would make the rookie roughly the third or fourth highest paid player on the team earning a salary similar to that of Adalius Thomas. Considering the Patriots frugal past, I absolutely cannot see them shelling out this kind of money for a rookie. No way. Notgunnahappen.

Ultimately, I think the Patriots' best trade suitor may be the Dallas Cowboys. I could see the Cowboys packaging both of their first rounders (#22 and #28 overall) to move up and select McFadden. Should that happen, the Patriots would gain some flexibility with its two first rounders and should be able to grab some solid value picks.

To give you something a little more specific and finite heading into tomorrow, I'll say that at #22 the Patriots will grab Aqib Talib, cornerback out of Kansas, and at #28, they will add Quentin Groves, OLB out of Auburn (to be converted to an Adalius Thomas-like hybrid).

One thing is for sure, Bill Belichick has surprised us before.