Projecting Griffey

It's the beginning of April! That can only mean two things. First, baseball season is finally, finally here. And second, Ken Griffey Jr. returns to continue his ascension towards 600 home runs. With that, the Griffey Watch also returns counting down to 600 home runs.

Here are the home run totals as projected by six prominent forecasting systems:

Source	CHONE	RotoWorld	Marcel	Roto- Authority	ZiPS	Miner
Projection	28	28	26	24	23	20

At a quick glance, it appears that the aggregrate belief is that Griffey will hit something in the neighborhood of 25 home runs in 2008. That would put him at 618 for his career, 5th all-time and 42 behind Willie Mays for 4th all-time. I'm not concerned so much with what totals The Kid will put up this season or in his career. Of immediate concern to me is when he will hit lucky #7. That one will, of course, put him at 600 home runs for his career.

It can be said that Griffey's pursuit of what was Hank Aaron's home run record has been severely derailed by injuries. That is quite true. Starting in 2001, Griffey went six straight seasons without recording 500 at-bats, and he only played in 120 or more games once in that stretch. Where he had hit at least 40 home runs in each season but one from 1993 to 2000, he hit only 135 combined home runs during his injury-plagued seasons in Cincinnati. Since joining Cincinnati, Griffey has played in an average of only 105 games per season.

We're lucky to have seen this swing almost 600 times.

For the purposes of this post, we'll assume that Griffey will stay healthy for the entire season, which looks entirely possibly considering his relatively pain-free offseason and his 144 games in 2007. Let's say Griffey gets 500 ABs and plays in 140 games. Using those numbers as the baseline, Griffey has a career rate of 34 HRs per 140 games played and 35 HRs per 500 ABs.

My guess, then, is assuming he can stay healthy for the long haul, Griffey will get to at least 30 or more home runs this season. But again, I'm not concerned with the final figure, only with when he'll get number seven this season.

Using the rates above, Griffey would likely hit career home run #600 around the 29th game of the season, which would be in St. Louis at the end of the month.

A couple of other rate stats to keep in mind: Griffey has a career home run rate of 0.62 per 10 ABs against left-handers and 0.70 against right-handers. Griffey has hit 311 of his 593 home runs at home and 282 away.

Here's what Cincinnati's schedule looks like through the first month and a half of the season: Arizona (3 games), Philadelphia (4), @Milwaukee (3), @Pittsburgh (3), @Chicago (3), Milwaukee (3), Los Angeles (2), Houston (2), @San Francisco (3), @St. Louis (3), @Atlanta (3), Chicago (3), @New York (3), Florida (4), Cleveland (3).

My projection is based on a very rough estimate of the probable pitchers that the Reds will face through the first month and a half. With that in mind, here's the breakdown against these first 13 teams and their probable starters.

Cincinnati opens up with two series and seven games at home where Griffey has hit 61 career home runs. Those two series are against Arizona and Philadelphia, teams in which he's hit only a combined eight homers against. His 0-3, 2 K performance on Monday against Brandon Webb notwithstanding, Griffey hasn't fared very well against the slate of DBacks pitchers he's set to face; he's a mere 5-38 combined against Webb, Dan Haren, and Randy Johnson. Against the Phillies probables, though, Griffey has fared considerably better, particularly against Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton, the Phils projected #4 and #5. Against those two, Griffey has combined for three home runs (two in five at-bats versus Eaton) in 30 ABs. Griffey is good for at least one against the Phillies.

Following the homestand, the Reds set out on a nine-game road trip to Miller Park, PNC Park, and Wrigley Field, stadiums in which Griffey has hit eight, six, and seven home runs, respectively. Looking at the numbers, it appears Junior should be good for at least three home runs on the road trip. He's homered 32 times against the Brewers in his career, the most times against any National League team. But this, of course, dates back to both parties' time in the AL. Those 32 homers include three against projected Game 2 starter, Dave Bush, in 15 ABs. In Pittsburgh, Griffey is likely to face Ian Snell and Paul Maholm in Games 2 and 3; he's hit two combined homers in 27 at-bat against the righty-lefty combo with an OPS in the .815 range. Against Cubs starters, Jason Marquis and Jon Lieber, in Games 1 and 2 in Chicago, Griffey is hitting .314 (11-35), but with zero home runs. Throw in Carlos Zambrano, the projected Game 3 starter who Griffey has two home runs and a 1.190 OPS against in 30 at-bats, and the potential is there for a productive road trip.

After the three-game set in Wrigley, the Reds return home for seven games, three against Milwaukee, and two a piece against the Dodgers and Astros. With eight home runs in 46 combined at-bats against Brewers' Games 1 and 3 starters, Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush, Griffey's a shoo-in for at least one dinger against the Brewers. The next four starters he would seemingly face would be Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Brandon Backe, and Wandy Rodriguez. Against this quartet, Griffey has seven round-trippers in a combined 61 at-bats. His OPSs against the two Astros in particular are 1.875 and 2.146, respectively. I'll give a very, very conservative prediction of one home run during this four-game stretch to account for any days off.

That puts Griffey at five homers for the season - and 598 for his career - going into the Reds last two series of April against the Giants and Cardinals. Against the projected slate of Giants starters - Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, and Matt Cain - Griffey has limited exposure with a tiny 4-12, 0 HR sample size. With the injuries to the St. Louis rotation, it's hard to say who will take the mound when the Reds head into Busch Stadium to close out April. With the limited experience against the Giants starters and the uncertainty surrounding the Cardinals rotation, I will take a highly risk-averse path and give Griffey a goose egg as he closes out the last six days of the first month of the season.

To open up May, Cincinnati heads to Atlanta for a three-game set, an opponent that Griffey has hit only seven home runs against in a stadium where he's only hit three. If my rough estimate on probables holds true, the Reds will be set to face John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and Tom Glavine in that three-game series, which isn't really all bad news for Junior Griffey. He's homered exactly once against each starter. I think that translates to one home run, whether he does it off of one of the Big Three or a reliever.

Thank you in advance, Carlos!

That will leave Griffey at 599 career home runs heading back home to Cincinnati, where seemingly all milestone home runs are hit - not in Cincinnati, but in home parks. So that begs the question: who will give up #600? My best guess is that it will be Carlos Zambrano, a pitcher who Griffey has basically owned throughout his career. The Cubs visit the Great American Ballpark on May 5-7 with Zambrano, in my estimate, slated for Game 3. As I pointed out earlier, in 30 ABs lifetime against Big Z, Griffey has posted a 1.190 OPS with two home runs.

The big game is scheduled for Wednesday, May 7 at 12:35. The good news is that the game will probably be broadcast on WGN. The bad news is that the game is in Cincinnati. Being about a five and a half hour drive and in the middle of the work week, my ability to travel to and from the game is severely limited.

So, to recap my prediction, I'm calling that #600 will be hit off of Carlos Zambrano on May 7 at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. I'll get even more specific. The time will be 12:49 (bottom of the 1st), and Griffey will hit a Zambrano fastball over the right-center field fence on a 3-1 count with no one on and two outs. It will be a solo job.

With that said, I'm in the market for some Reds-Cubs tickets.