But before we get to this year, let's take a quick look back at last year. I pegged five of the six division winners, with the exception of the San Diego Padres who I had winning the NL West (thanks, Trevor Hoffman!). I correctly predicted the World Series winner. I had the Yanks getting the Wild Card in the AL, and I had the Tigers - everyone's favorite to win everything last year - out of the playoffs altogether. My bottom seven teams were Kansas City, Washington, San Francisco, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay. Five Of those seven were among the seven teams with the fewest number of wins in 2007. Perhaps my greatest call was claiming the Rockies as the surprise team of 2007.
Of course, last year's rankings didn't go off without a hitch. I did pick the Astros to finish second in the NL Central and claim the Wild Card. They finished 4th with a sub-.500 record. I also ranked the Brewers and Diamondbacks 22nd and 23rd, respectively. The Brewers nearly beat out the Cubs for the NL Central, and the Diamondbacks won the NL West and advanced to the NLCS.
Fast forward to 2008. Here's how this thing works. My rankings are mostly subjective, but do possess a hint of objectivity. These rankings are designed to predict the final rankings as they would stand following the World Series; thus the AL and NL World Series representatives would be ranked 1-2, all other playoff teams 3-8, and the remaining, non-postseason teams would fill out the rest of the list. By no means is this a snapshot of how each team currently looks. It's simply my prediction on how the season will ultimately shake out.
From worst to first, here's how S3B sees the 2008 season unfolding along with my Cy Young, MVP, and World Series picks.
(Note: I was about 95% confident in last year's list. This year's crop of teams is a bit more difficult to predict. Put me down for a confidence level of about 65% this year.)
30. Pittsburgh Pirates (Prediction: 6th in NL Central)
consistently overrated talent + a front office overhaul = history
The Pirates will go into the record books by recording their 16th straight losing season.
29. Baltimore Orioles (Prediction: 5th in AL East)
I'm in an ESPN fantasy baseball league run by an Orioles fan. He titled the league "The Year of the Great Rebuild." Enough said.
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| Sorry, guys, but you're going to be terrible. |
Here's the A's starting outfield: Travis Buck, Chris Denorfia, Emil Brown. That typically won't translate into alot of runs. The only major weapons the A's have on the pitching staff - Blanton, Street, Harden - could all be gone by midseason as part of Billy Beane's rebuilding process.
27. San Francisco Giants (Prediction: 5th in NL West)
Even without Barry Bonds, the Giants could pass for an AARP campaigning group. Even with Aaron Rowand, the offense will be dreadfully woeful. I don't think the Giants will be as bad as what some think, though, considering their tremendously talented starting rotation.
26. Washington Nationals (Prediction: 5th in NL East)
My pick to finish last season at #30, the Nats played well enough to escape the cellar. The starting rotation will do it's best to put the Nats in the cellar this year, but the offense has improved enough to prevent that from happening. (Question: which unit will fare worse in 2008, the Nationals rotation or the Giants offense?)
25. Kansas City Royals (Prediction: 5th in AL Central)
The Royals are taking huge strides in the right direction. They're doing what they need to do to bring in the right talent. However, they'll still a dominant arm and big bat away from competing.
24. Florida Marlins (Prediction: 4th in NL East)
Even though the Marlins highest paid player is their closer, Kevin Gregg ($2.5MM), this squad is loaded with talent thanks in large part to the Tigers (Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo) and the Red Sox (Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez). They'll flirt with .500 through the first half of the season before falling apart.
23. Texas Rangers (Prediction: 3rd in AL West)
The offense has flashed some upside. While I don't foresee any 30-run games this season, they should produce behind Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, and Hank Blalock. The pitching will once again be the X-factor.
22. St. Louis Cardinals (Prediction: 5th in NL Central)
The Cards will start with Matt Clement, Chris Carpenter, and Mark Mulder on the DL. That's 60% of the rotation. If Pujols' elbow tendon ruptures, 100% of the lineup will join them. On a side note, I think Adam Wainwright is a future Cy Young candidate.
21. Houston Astros (Prediction: 4th in NL Central)
The Stros have star power and big names in the lineup, but outside of Oswalt, have nothing to offer as far as starting pitching. They could feasibly score 800+ runs, but could also give up the same.
20. Chicago White Sox (Prediction: 4th in AL Central)
Like the Tigers, the White Sox have, to a lesser extent, mortgaged the future in hopes of making a playoff push this season. Unfortunately, the ChiSox have no capable second baseman and lack the experience at the back end of the rotation to make any noise down the stretch.
19. Tampa Bay Rays (Prediction: 4th in AL East)
Is there a more exciting team in baseball? If the offense can take that proverbial next step, the only thing left to do would be to shore up the back end of their rotation. The Rays could finally flirt with .500 this season.
18. Toronto Blue Jays (Prediction: 3rd in AL East)
The Jays are surprisingly solid and will be very good. But will they be good enough to win the East or make a push for the Wild Card?
17. Cincinnati Reds (Prediction: 3rd in NL Central)
The Reds are a popular Cinderella pick this year, and I'm on board. They have four potential Rookie of the Year candidates (Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto), two guys who could conceivably compete for NL MVP (Dunn, Phillips), and the best player of all time. Personally, I'm pulling for the Reds in the Central, but, realistically, I think they're a leadoff hitter away.
16. Colorado Rockies (Prediction: 4th in NL West)
The Rox are essentially the same team that they were in 2007. Prior to rattling off 14 wins in 15 games to claim the Wild Card, the Rockies found themselves in 4th place in the West. Without such luck this year, that's where Colorado will find themselves in October in 2008.
15. Seattle Mariners (Prediction: 2nd in AL West)
Like the Reds in the NL, the M's are a popular Cinderella pick this season. The pitching staff, anchored by Bedard, King Felix, Carlos Silva, and Putz, will hold up its end of the bargain. If Sexson and Beltre can anchor the offense, the Mariners could pry the West away from LA. Here's a bold prediction: Ichiro will win his 2nd MVP award.
14. San Diego Padres (Prediction: 3rd in NL West)
The Padres were my pick to represent the National League in the World Series last year, and they, in essence, nearly pulled it off. This year is a different story. The offense is completely devoid of power, and despite a strong bullpen, the Padres lack the pitching depth of Prior years.
13. Cleveland Indians (Prediction: 3rd in AL Central)
Much like the Rockies, this is a very similar team to what the Tribe rolled out last year. And like the Rockies, I see the Indians faltering a bit in 2008. I predict a similar fate to that of the '06 team who won only 78 games after winning 93 in '05 and making a late push for the Central title.
12. Minnesota Twins (Prediction: 2nd in AL Central)
How's this for a surprise pick? With a core of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Young, the Twins will score some runs. The rotation will be productive enough to keep the Twins in games, and the bullpen is one of the best in the business at holding down leads.
11. Philadelphia Phillies (Prediction: 3rd in NL East)
A high-powered offense and a strong 'pen could translate to alot of wins for the Phillies and their starters. I'm a bit reserved, though. I want to see Philadelphia consistently play well and defend their NL East crown before I anoint them the new Kings of the East. I see them regressing in '08.
10. Atlanta Braves (Prediction: 2nd in NL East)
The top of the Braves rotation looks alot like it did circa 1995, but the back of the Braves looks alot like it did circa 1985. When it's all said and done, though, I see the Braves finishing like it did circa 2005.
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| The Brewers will finish 2nd in the NL Central...unless Prince eats all of the Cubs. |
I missed on the Brewers last year thinking that they were still a year away. Well, I've learned my lesson. This team is only going to get better. They'll finish behind the Cubbies, though, because the pitching staff will struggle due to injuries and ineffectiveness.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers (Prediction: 2nd in NL West, NL Wild Card)
The Dodgers are basically a carbon copy of the Diamondbacks with a couple of veterans sprinkled in. Youthful and talented offense: check. Dynamite starting rotation: not as good, but check. Like he did with the Yankees last year, Torre will lead the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth.
7. Chicago Cubs (Prediction: 1st in NL Central)
The Paper Champions of the NL Central, they'll have to pull the trigger on a Brian Roberts trade to stave off the Brewers, in my opinion. By the way, wouldn't a fun prediction be Kerry Wood winning the Cy Young? It'd be fun, but it's a prediction I'm not making.
6. Boston Red Sox (Prediction: 2nd in AL East, AL Wild Card)
I do think the talent and desire is there for a repeat. But it's obvious that the short offseason, the shortest of any team in the Majors, is already affecting the ability of Sox players to stay healthy as Schilling, Lugo, Crisp, and Beckett have already been bitten by the injury bug. I worry that this team will be plagued by injuries all season long.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (Prediction: 1st in NL West)
The DBacks will combine a youthful and talented offense with a dynamite starting rotation to repeat as NL West champs behind eventual Cy Young winner, Brandon Webb. The only question mark they have is at closer. And if "the Way the West was Won" last season is any indication, a good closer may be a good idea.
4. New York Yankees (Prediction: 1st in AL East)
This is truly painful picking the Yankees to finish above (or is this below?) the Sox. But the reality is that the Yankees lineup is full of all-stars and future Hall of Famers. They will score runs. Even though the Yanks do have health concerns in the rotation similar to those of the Sox, I believe New York has one more East crown in them before succumbing to the Red Sox dynasty for the next 10 years.
3. Detroit Tigers (Prediction: 1st in AL Central)
This offense has a chance to be one of the most prolific in recent memory. The concern, though, is pitching. Nobody has really emerged behind Verlander and the bullpen is already marred by injuries. Regardless, the Tigers will have too much firepower to not win the Central. And speaking of Verlander, he's my pick for AL Cy Young with Santana headed to the NL.
2. New York Mets (Prediction: 1st in NL East)
I'm on board thinking that the Mets are the team to beat in the NL. With Reyes and NL MVP, David Wright, running the show on offense, the Mets will run out one of the best rotations in the National League led by Johan Santana. On top of that, they had 46 more stolen bases as a team (200) than any other team in the Majors last season.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Prediction: 1st in AL West)
The addition of Torii Hunter has made this a very deep and talented offense which couples with a deep rotation, dominant bullpen, and talented farm system. Despite injuries already being a concern, this is a complete team and a complete organization. The Angels will join the Red Sox as the only teams to win multiple championships this century.
2 comments:
"But the reality is that the Yankees lineup is full of all-stars and future Hall of Famers. They will score runs."
The Yankees scored runs LAST year-a hundred more than the Sox. It's the same lineup and they're all a year older. While they won't be trotting out Chase Wright and Jeff Karstens this year, I don't see their rotation or bullpen as strong as the Sox.
Until they give me a reason to do otherwise, I'm going with the Sox again this year.
BSB,
You certainly aren't wrong, and I want to pick the Sox; I really do. I think they both (Yanks and Sox) have very similar teams this season. But, like I said, I think injuries will affect the Sox this season much more than they have in prior seasons due to the short offseason. That will give the Yanks an edge.
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