From the Notebook, Vol. V

Sports fans don't like the month of February...and for good reason. Outside of the Super Bowl, what else does the second month of the year have to offer? There's the Pro Bowl, which is really no more exciting than taking a shower. National Signing Day is an overhyped forum for high schoolers who will never quite pan out to have their moment in the spotlight, or not (see: Terrelle Pryor). NBA All-Star Weekend is only a mere afterthought since good players stopped participating in the dunk contest. (Imagine the Home Run Derby with a cast of players like Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, and Chone Figgins. That's what the dunk contest has turned in to.) There's also the NHL All-Star Game, which, by itself, expresses how crappy the month of February is for the simple fact that I'm even mentioning it as a sporting event that takes place in February.

Needless to say, February sucks! Fortunately, though, March Madness and Opening Day are right around the corner. But to test our will to live, the sporting world has thrown an extra day in February at us this year. As we all debate what to do with that treacherous 29th day of February, here's the fifth edition of the S3B From the Notebook feature.

Addition by Addition, Subtraction by Subtraction
Last year, the Patriots were stung by Indy's come-from-behind win in the AFC Championship game. Belichick made a vow to not let his team suffer a similar fate in 2007 by being extremely aggressive in the subsequent offseason. The Patriots went out and signed free agent linebacker, Adalius Thomas and former Dolphins running back, Sammy Morris. They also invested heavily into their receiving corps with the acquisitions of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and Kelley Washington. In the end, the Pats barely ended up underneath the salary cap; according to Pats Cap, the Pats were only $536 under their adjusted cap.

New England was obviously awarded for their aggressiveness in the offseason by going 18-1 and winning the AFC East division crown and the AFC Championship - addition by addition, if you will. But, so far, this offseason has been far different. The Patriots have already let Asante

Colvin was undoubtedly a fan favorite.

Samuel hit the free agent market; they declined the option on Donte Stallworth; and they most recently cut Roosevelt Colvin, a personal favorite of mine. Now, none of these moves came as a surprise, but it appears as if the Patriots are setting a different tone for this offseason. They appear to have drifted back into the traditional way of conducting Patriot business, and that is to remain strict on their policy of eliminating anyone who they deem too expensive for their expected production.

It remains unclear as to how these losses will affect the Patriots in the 2008 season, but on the surface, the Patriots are worse of as of today. They took a big hit at cornerback by letting Samuel walk and they are suddenly thin at linebacker with the release of Colvin and possible retirement of Seau. It's no secret that Samuel, Colvin, and Stallworth are talents that will be difficult to replace - subtraction by subtraction. That said, the Patriots are extremely effective - more than any other team in any other sport that I've seen - at filling holes.

The $1.25 Million Colon
Question: Who is the new proud owner of a $1,250,000 Colon?

Answer: The Red Sox. By now, I'm sure you know that the Sox have made one of the most intriguing free agent signings of the offseason by inking former Cy Young winner, Bartolo Colon, who just so happens to share his surname with the least appealing of the body's orifices, to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million, assuming Colon reaches the big league level. The deal has performance incentives that would increase the value of the deal to $7 million if Colon makes 30 starts.

With the injury to Curt Schilling, it became apparent that the Sox needed to bring in additional arms. And considering the alternatives, Colon seems like a very low-risk deal. The way I view it, there are three possible scenarios for Colon's performance this season, assuming again that he makes the Majors. First, he can return to a level near his Cy Young season, replace Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and win 15 games. I suspect this to be a long shot. On the opposite end, Colon can get some opportunities, pull an Eric Gagne, and quickly find himself unemployed. Third, and in my opinion, most likely, he can spell the young duo of Lester and Buchholz, make 12-20 starts, and post moderately acceptable numbers similar to those of Julian Tavarez's 2007 season. (Fragile Freddy's summarizes the realm of possibilities for Bartolo Colon pretty nicely here.)

While we don't know what to expect from Mr. Colon this season, one thing is for certain: the dude is beefy. But, if Colon can stay healthy, and - pardon the awful, but necessary pun - avoid becoming a clubhouse cancer, I think he can be a valuable addition to the Sox in '08, especially at $1.25 million.

Put Him in, Coach
Here are RotoWorld's projections for Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008:

(Avg-HR-RBI-R-SB-OBP-SLG-OPS)
Crisp: .280-8-47-58-17-.333-.407-.740
Ellsbury: .279-8-56-75-34-.336-.398-.738

According to these projections, there really isn't a huge disparity between Coco and Jacoby, not at least for 2008. Ellsbury is projected to swipe a significant amount more bases, but my expectations are a little more tempered for Ellsbury in this department. I could see him in the mid-20's in steals, and I could actually see him approach 100 runs scored.

Anyways, I'm on board for having Crisp be the starting center fielder come Opening Day for two reasons. First, as illustrated above, there won't be much of a difference between the two offensively in the short term. And for the time being, you have to give the edge to Coco defensively. Second, the market for center fielders is terribly feeble right now. So, by having Crisp as the #1 CF on the depth chart, the Sox can increase his trade value and use him to fill a hole or holes if a team has a need arise in the middle of their outfield. The last thing the Sox should do is kill the trade value of one of their most valuable chips.

That's Just the President Being Manny
For all of the jokes made at President Bush's expense over the past eight years, no one has ever questioned his personality or his sense of humor, both of which were on display Wednesday when

There is just something about this picture that words can't describe.

the Red Sox made the trip to Washington, DC to meet the president in celebration of their most recent World Series win. Most of the Sox players made the trip, but not Manny Ramirez. At his absence, President Bush playfully made the following quip:

"Sorry, Manny Ramirez isn't here. I guess his grandmother died again."
(Source: The Boston Globe)

Manny wasn't the only target of President Bush's humor, however. Regarding Jonathan Papelbon's Irish jig, G.W. had this clever bit to offer up:

"And how about Jonathan Papelbon. Guy pitches as well as he dances. And I appreciate the dress code. Thanks for wearing pants."

For pictures of the Red Sox White House visit, check out this Sons of Sam Horn thread.

Fantasy Baseball Roundup
I'm a big fantasy baseball enthusiast. I get into the whole General Manager role probably way more than I should. My wife says that fantasy baseball will be the death of our marriage. Well, at least my priorities are in line.

Anyways, in preparation for my March 16 draft, I've been doing my annual research, crunching stats, reading magazine and online articles, perusing databases, and creating my own customized projections and player rankings. So, with that in mind, I wanted to share some of my favortie fantasy sites that I've come across over the past month or so with you.

• I'm a huge fan of the work that Tim Dierkes does. He not only runs MLB Trade Rumors which I read habitually, but he also maintains a fantasy baseball blog called RotoAuthority. Tim provides alot of clever insight and analysis into the world of fantasy baseball. I'd go into more detail, but you should read it for yourself.


• RotoWorld is a subscription-based service that provides literally any type of fantasy analysis you could possibly think of on any sport, not just baseball. For $14.99, you can purchase the highly useful Draft Guide. For $24.99, you can get the Draft Guide as well as season-long analysis.


• My new toy is Mock Draft Central. For those of you obsessed with fantasy baseball like I am, MDC is a very handy place to practice your draft strategy over and over and over again. For $3.99 a month, you can participate in an unlimited number of mock drafts, browse endless ADP (average draft position) lists, and create customized cheat sheets. Again, this site isn't just limited to baseball. It's also very useful for you fantasy football buffs.


• Have you ever wondered which young, stud pitchers to target and which to avoid? Well, Tom Verducci of SI.com provides brilliant analysis on the injury risk of a handful of these young pitchers for the 2008 season using his Year After Effect (YAE). This is an article I've cited many times in the comments of other blogs.

Let Me Hit You with Some Knowledge
I was recently hired back on board at General Electric Transportation in Erie after six months of unemployment. Beginning a new job can be exciting for many reasons. But for me, perhaps the most exciting reason in this case was that I finally got to use my Red Sox mini desk calendar! I got this thing for my birthday back in September, and it's been stored away in a box in the basement just waiting to be used. Now that it is happily set aside my work desk, I will share some of its knowledge with you. Here are some interesting Red Sox facts that I've come across over the past week:

- George Burns (1923) and John Valentin (1994) are the only Red Sox shortstops to turn unassisted triple plays in team history.
- Jeff Reardon was the first Red Sox closer to save 20 or more games in ten consecutive seasons.
- Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Andre Dawson, and Manny Ramirez have all slugged their 400th home runs as a member of the Boston Red Sox.
- While leading the league in OBP all four seasons, Wade Boggs tallied both 200 hits and 100 walks each year from 1986 to 1989.
- Vic Wuertz registered only 45 runs while knocking in 103 in 1960. That is the largest single season ratio in baseball history of players with 100 RBIs or more.
- Lefty Grove's birth name was actually Robert Moses Grove.