End of an Era?

Is the Patriots dynasty over?

Perhaps Kevin of The Angry Fan is right. (And why is he angry? Hmm.) Maybe the negativity that follows is simply a knee-jerk reaction to the Patriots Super Bowl loss. Maybe my depressed state only allows me to look at things in a negative light. Maybe I'm making ill-informed, irrational decisions because I may be thinking with a clouded mind.

Maybe. Probably.

But, as Patriots fans, we need to look at some of the realities associated with this team. Some of the symptoms indicating that the dynasty is approaching its end are beginning to surface. The fact of the matter is that the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl in three seasons. If they get shut out again next year, that will mark the fourth straight season that the Patriots have failed to achieve football's ultimate prize - not exactly dynasty material. The Packers of the '60s never went more than two years between championships. The Steelers of the '70s did not appear in a Super Bowl in the first four years of that decade, but they also won four titles in the last six years of the '70s, the only team to ever accomplish that feat. And the 49ers of the '80s never went more than three years between Super Bowl titles.

Even if the Patriots do bounce back and win their fourth Super Bowl of the decade, that only gives them two titles in the last five years. There have been plenty of franchises who haven't even been considered dynasties to repeat that feat including the Miami Dolphins, Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, and Denver Broncos.

The previous couple of paragraphs notwithstanding, here are a handful of indicators which may suggest the end of the road for the Patriots dynasty.

Age
If you haven't heard, the Patriots linebackers are old. Only Spygate has been reported more. I've been slow to classify Bruschi, Vrabel, Seau, and Harrison (hereafter referred to as

By NFL standards, Seau should have already qualified for social security.

"The Veterans") as such. As Rodney Harrison said after the AFC Championship game, "If we play bad, we're old. If we play well, we're experienced." Well, for the first 18 games of the season, The Veterans have been "experienced." After the Super Bowl, though, they appear to be more "old" than "experienced" now.

I'm not pinning the loss on the defense; that blame clearly goes on the shoulders of the offensive line. The defense actually play very well. However, the fact that the Giants scored 14 points in the fourth quarter, including their final touchdown in a mere 2:10 with the game on the line, indicates that the defense was tired. The Veterans have invariably made big plays in big situations, but they were uncharacteristically quiet with the game on the line against the Giants.

Even if you're not ready to classify these guys as "old," make no mistake, in football years, they are old. Four of the seven oldest Patriots are linebackers. Between the five regular linebackers this season, there was a combined 53 years of experience. If you throw Rodney Harrison into this mix, five of the seven oldest Patriots are on the defensive side of the ball, and their combined experience jumps to 66. When the 2008 regular season rolls around, each linebacker (including Harrison) will be over the age of 31.

Defense
Age isn't the only thing that may plague the Patriots defense. The impending loss of Asante Samuel could also have some damaging effects.

Let's compare the Patriots defenses from 2004 and 2005. In 2004, the Patriots ranked 9th in total yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, and 3rd in takeaways. They ranked 17th in total pass defense and 7th in both passing touchdowns allowed and interceptions. However, in 2005, the Patriots fell to 26th in total yards allowed, 17th in points allowed, 31st in takeaways, 31st in total pass defense, 28th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 26th in interceptions. With the exception of interceptions (28th in 2000), those 2005 ranks were each the worst for a Patriots defense under Bill Belichick. The difference? Ty Law was still around in 2004. The Patriots let him walk before the 2005 season.

Asante Samuel is a franchise cornerback, and he is the Patriots first such cornerback since Ty Law (who wore #24, by the way). I'm not saying that lightning will strike twice, but the Patriots have already witnessed firsthand the effects of the loss of a cornerback of Samuel's caliber.

Bill Belichick
Look, I'm on board in believing that Belichick will and should go down as the greatest coach in the history of the NFL. His resume is immaculate. He continues to roll out a competitive team each season; the Patriots have won the AFC East six of the past seven years. He's won two AP Coach of the Year awards. He's racked up three Super Bowl wins. And he now has an undefeated season to his credit.

But the way the second half of the season played out might be cause for concern. Through Week 11, the Patriots were 10-0 and had an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. From that point, the Pats went 8-1 with an average margin of victory of only 10.1 points. Further, it is unlike Belichick to be outcoached in any game let alone a Super Bowl. That is exactly what happened in the Super Bowl, though; Belichick was outcoached by Tom Coughlin. Has Belichick been figured out? Has he lost an edge? As blasphemous as it may sound, it may warrant some attention.

Kicker
As ridiculous as it may seem to consider a kicker as a possible reason for the demise of a dynasty, consider Adam Vinatieri. Vinatieri is probably as responsible for building the Patriots dynasty as Brady and Belichick are. He has the three most important field goals in Patriots franchise history and, arguably, three of the most important field goals in NFL history. He has

Fortunately, this kick overshadows "The Tuck Rule."

two Super Bowl winning field goals to his credit - one in Super Bowl XXXVI against St. Louis and one in Super Bowl XXXVIII against Carolina. His most memorable field goal may be one that didn't even win a Super Bowl; the field goal in the snow to beat Oakland in the 2002 playoffs has to be one of the greatest moments in Boston sports history.

But Stephen Gostkowski is not Adam Vinatieri. No other kicker will ever be. That was never more apparent when Bill Belichick decided to pass up that 48-yard field goal attempt in the third quarter of the Super Bowl in favor of going for it on 4th and 13. Belichick does not hesitate to kick that field goal with Vinatieri on the sidelines. It's easy to say in hindsight, but a field goal in that situation sends the game into overtime, at worst.

Considering the Patriots history with clutch field goals, it's hard to imagine a Patriots dynasty without a weapon such as Adam Vinatieri.

Spygate
I'm just as sick as the next guy from hearing about Spygate. The reality is, though, that things could get worse for the Patriots. Senator Arlen Specter seems to want to tackle this dilemma full force. Consider him the George Mitchell of the steroids investigation. And if Matt Walsh turns out to be more Brian McNamee than we all expect, the Patriots could feasibly be in a heap of trouble.

Of course, this is all hypothetical, but no one has been proven innocent as of yet. If more evidence that the Patriots "cheated" is revealed that Roger Goodell was not aware of, Goodell has made it very clear that he will revisit the situation. And if the original Spygate penalty levied upon the Patriots is any indication, the Pats may have to sacrifice the future as punishment for any possible wrongdoing. Let's face it. Even the Patriots will find it difficult to sustain a franchise without a full financial backing and/or multiple first-round draft choices.

I realize that it is difficult to classify a team that just finished off an 18-1 season as being in decline. But, in my attempt at being objective, I do see some signs that the run may be over.

I really do hope that Kevin is right, though. I do hope that this whole post has simply been an overblown reaction to my own pessimism stemming from the Patriots lost. Perhaps I should just trust Bill Belichick. I should trust him to sustain this dynasty. I should trust him to help this team rebound in a positive way like they did after the loss to Indianapolis last season. I should trust him to win at least one more Super Bowl before the decade expires.

I should, but I also trusted him to have this team well-prepared for Super Bowl XLII.